De Minaur vs Jarry (Approx Midday AEDST)
I cannot see any other approach here except De Minaur to win and cover the handicap. Looking at the struggles of Jarry on clay over the last couple of weeks, it hardly fills me with any confidence that he is going to translate any aspect of form over to the hardcourt.
Whilst De Minaur did have to withdraw in New York due to illness picked up in his Davis Cup appearance, I think the extra time off will have served him quite well coming into this tournament in Acapulco. It is incredibly hard to fault his performances on hardcourt over the last 6 months, with his losses coming against players either going on to make the finals or win tournaments around the same time (Tsitsipas, Nadal and Tsonga).
The main redeeming feature of the game of Jarry is his serve, and it hasn't looked up to scratch throughout his recent clay stretch. When the serve isn't at his best, the length of point increases, and the cumulative fatigue across the match increases as well. We saw against Sonego, Carballes Baena and Londero that his fitness just wasn't quite there in 3 sets of tennis in the heat. Granted this match will take place in the evening, I still don't see how Jarry is going to handle a player such as De Minaur turning things into a massive grind.
I really like De Minaur in this one. There is a fair amount of -3.5 games available, and if accessible I would say it would be worth 5 units. Alas, as this line will move, I will record for 4 units at the -4 game handicap. De Minaur should be too consistent and turn this into too much of a rallying grind for Jarry. All signs point to De Minaur covering the handicap in my opinion.
4 units De Minaur -4 games vs Jarry at $2.05 at Topsport