Struff vs Monteiro (Approx 10:30pm AEST)
A 3.5 game handicap looks to be quite a generous start for the Brazilian Monteiro, fresh off three set victories over two of the better qualifying players in Ramos and Rublev. Monteiro just hasn’t quite come on as much as some would expect, however I think the leftie matches up quite well here against Struff - so much so that we may have an upset on our hands in Munich today.
3.5 units Monteiro +3.5 games vs Struff at $2.00 at Bet365
Jan-Lennard Struff was honourable in his 5-7 5-7 loss to another left hander in Rafael Nadal, however with concerns around a potential wrist issue for Nadal, and his recent defeats to Fognini and Thiem, a little too much may be read into that victory from an odds perspective in my opinion. Struff was the beneficiary of a tired Dellien, an out-of-form Goffin and a below average Tsitsipas in Barcelona, but credit to him for making his way through to the quarter final. Struff is the player that can genuinely frustrate you at times, as he has all the shots in isolation but it just doesn’t all come together often enough at the top level to be that consistent top 30 player. I think the leftie forehand of Monteiro can make life a little difficult for Struff on the backhand wing, as he has a tendency to like the ball coming on a touch flatter than he will see today - that in turn leads to a shallow backhand from Struff quite regularly, which will set Monteiro up to take control where he can.
Monteiro shouldn’t be too phased by Struff coming into the net, as he is a competent passer on both wings, and at the very least can force Struff to make a tough volley. He can take a step or two back on the return, and should still be good enough to be able to pick his spots and put pressure on Struff.
I was initially happy to split this play across game handicap and head to head as I love both, however I wouldn’t anticipate the value price of $3.50 head to head to last at Bet365. Instead, I’ll make a 3.5 unit selection on Monteiro to cover the 3.5 game handicap, as that is available at most bookmakers.