View this email in your browser

 

April 15 2019 - Monte Carlo


First, let’s recap the seven plays from yesterday:
 
1)      Swiatek gave backers a glimmer of hope, racing to a 2-0 lead in the third set, before dropping her level significantly. She has a bright future ahead of her, however I do get the feeling that she perhaps had the occasion get to her a touch. The wetter conditions in set one also worked to Hercog’s advantage, however it was certainly a drop in level from Swiatek today.
 
2)      Bedene was too good for Daniel overall, albeit with a shaky start. Bedene couldn’t buy a first serve early, but his form around Paire last week stands up with his Marrakech title overnight.
 
3)      Elias Ymer burst out of the blocks with an instant break, however Popyrin was able to be the more consistent player across the two sets.
 
4)      Mickael Ymer also burst out of the blocks against Carballes Baena, taking the first set 6-2. It was one way traffic to RCB from there, with Ymer taking a MTO late in the third set. On reflection, a player with the style of Ymer against RCB would have benefited from a set 1 play, as if his style didn’t match up in set 1 against RCB, it wasn’t going to stand up over best of 3 sets with the Spaniard’s grinding ability and consistency.
 
5)      Rublev and Londero both won comfortably (as did Rublev 2-0 although not widely available).
 
6)      Pella was the better player for longer against Djere. His backhand was off early, however a dominant second set helped set up the victory, however it wasn’t without its pressure (saved BPs in 9th game of set 3, then broke in 10th game).
 
After those 6 plays, it was up to Sharma to enure a profit for the evening. Unfortunately, she was unable to convert a set and break advantage, losing in three sets and unable to cover the handicap.
 
On to tonight, where there are a couple of value selections on initial viewing.
 
Feeling very good about the clay season ahead, so hopefully this is reflected in the results in the coming months. As always, if you have any questions, please don't hesitate to get in touch.

Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com

 


4 Unit Bet

Bedene -3.5 games vs Albot at $1.83 (-120 or 83/100) at Bet365 - ATP Monte Carlo

3 Unit Bet

Sousa +2.5 games vs Medvedev at $1.94 (-107 or 47/50) at Topsport/Unibet - ATP Monte Carlo

2.5 Unit Bet

Kohlschreiber and Moroni to win at $1.84 (-117 or 21/25) at Topsport - ATP Challenger Tunis and ATP Monte Carlo

Chardy -2.5 games vs Kukushkin at $1.80 (-125 or 4/5) at Bet365/Unibet - ATP Monte Carlo


 

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Bedene vs Albot (Approx 11:30pm AEST)


This is the perfect situation to attack tonight in my opinion. Once Bedene found range with his first serve against Daniel, and his first serve went from the low 20%’s to the 50%’s, the match become quite one sided quite quickly. With two qualifying wins under his belt, this looks a good situation to attack Bedene at the game handicap, with Albot to play his first match on clay for 2019 tonight.
 
I wouldn’t be classing clay court as the best surface for Radu Albot, and that shows in his 4-11 record on clay over the last 12 months. At ATP level for his career, his record sits at 10-21, having gone 0-7 against top 50 players. Whilst Bedene is not currently classed as a top 50 player in the rankings, his recent clay form suggests he isn’t too far off that ranking. Transitions to clay from another surface haven’t always gone to plan recently (lost 6 of first 7 clay matches in 2018, then lost to P Sousa transitioning back to clay after Wimbledon 2018). Against a known claycourt player in Bedene, who has a 16-10 record on clay over the last 12 months and has played 23 claycourt finals over all levels in his career (including 2 at ATP level), I think the difference between the two players on this surface is quite significant.
 
I will be making a 4 unit selection on Bedene to not only win, but cover the game handicap here. He should be too strong, and my confidence is  only strengthened by the fact Bedene has two qualifying wins under his belt. Surface, conditions and form all point to a comfortable win for Bedene.



Suggested Bet

4 units Bedene -3.5 games vs Albot at $1.83 at Bet365

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Sousa vs Medvedev (Approx 7:00pm AEST)

 

I think the odds here on Sousa have reached a point where they are almost a bit ridiculous. Is he so short based on his name alone?

 

Last year I covered a match between Daniil Medvedev and Robin Haase, highlighting that the current game plan and style of play adopted by Medvedev not being overly suited to clay. When you cast an eye over his results in the last 18 months, his best tennis comes generally on indoor hardcourt where conditions are as close to perfect as possible. Medvedev hits a very low/flat ball with minimal spin, however with the flat hitting comes a small margin of error. Clay surfaces can throw up a bit more variety in terms of bounce and variation, so there is a bit of added risk when considering the way Medvedev does play. For his size, he does like to grind down his opponents, however on a slow clay surface like Monte Carlo, I think he may really struggle against Joao Sousa today.

 

These two met in Estoril on clay last year, with Sousa prevailing 7-6 7-5. If Sousa can keep Medvedev moving as much as possible in this match, he has the consistency, movement and shotmaking to grind down Medvedev. As I feel Sousa will be the more consistent player for longer, I am happy to make a 3 unit selection on Sousa to cover the +2.5 game handicap. I also think he is decent value to win the match outright.



Suggested Bet

3 units Sousa +2.5 games vs Medvedev at $1.94 at Topsport/Unibet

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Chardy vs Kukushkin (Approx 08:30pm AEST)

 

You have to spare a thought for Jeremy Chardy, who like Aljaz Bedene had an eventual title winner last week well and truly on the ropes. Chardy had a handful of match points and put himself in a number of fantastic positions in his match against Garin, ultimately losing 6-3 6-7 6-7. He ended up having 5 match points, 4 of them on serve, but just couldn't get over the line. Whilst Monte Carlo hasn't been the happiest of hunting grounds for Chardy over his career, he does seem relatively comfortable playing on clay. The slower surface allows the ball to sit up a little more for Chardy, and he does have the power to hit through some opponents even though the conditions don't perhaps suit. Chardy has made 1 ATP claycourt final and 5 Semi Finals, so the surface isn't entirely foreign to him, and he has the added benefit of an adjustment of a week (a match and a couple of days of practice) to the clay from his performance in Houston, whilst also allowing enough travel time to become accustomed to the conditions in Monte Carlo as well.

 

This will be Kukushkin's first match on clay for the season, and his style of play can sometimes fall into a similar category to that of Medvedev who I discussed earlier. Kukushkin also hits quite a flat ball, and may struggle a little bit to control the serve of Chardy on the clay today. I think this match sets up perfectly for Chardy, who should be able to use his 1-2 punch of serve and forehand on a consistent basis. The form around Garin from Houston appears solid, and I am more than happy to oppose Kukushkin on clay in current form. Happy to take the -2.5 game handicap for a 2.5 unit selection.


Suggested Bet

2.5 units Chardy -2.5 games vs Kukushkin at $1.80 at Bet365/Unibet

ATP Monte Carlo
ATP Challenger Tunis

 

Kohlschreiber vs Daniel (Approx 08:30pm AEST)
Moroni vs Bonadio (Approx 08:30pm AEST)



Happy to oppose Taro Daniel again today. Statistically he wasn’t at his best yesterday against Bedene, and he is fortunate to have made his way into the main draw as a lucky loser today. I don’t feel Daniel has the weapons to consistently hit through Kohlschreiber today, which will well and truly play into the hands of the German.  Daniel has played a lot of tennis in the last couple of days, so this looks to be a good position to take Kohlschreiber, who is proficient enough on clay and has made the quarter finals here on a couple of occasions throughout his career.
 
I am happy to double Kohlschreiber up with a Challenger selection from the Tunis Challenger in Moroni, who looks a nice price against Bonadio. Bonadio has really struggled over the last month or so, and I have seen enough of Moroni recently to feel that he is starting to trend upwards again after a slow start to the year.



Suggested Bet

2.5 units Kohlschreiber and Moroni to win at $1.84 at Topsport
Twitter
Email
Copyright © 2019 Ace Previews Pty Ltd, All rights reserved.

For any support issues, please contact ace@acetennispreviews.com

Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.