Petkovic vs Sakkari (Approx 05:00am AEDST)
I must say I am a little shocked to see Sakkari coming into this match as an underdog. Is too much being taken from Petkovic's 6-0 6-4 win over Lepchenko? Having a quick look at the match:
- Lepchenko hasn't seemed to be near 100% physically this year dating back to the Australian Open Qualifying.
- Petkovic wasn't particularly dominant behind either the first or the second serve, winning 69% and 59% of points respectively.
- Petkovic trailed 1-3 in set 2.
- In Petkovic's five service games in set 2 she held to love twice, was broken once, and held from 0/30 twice.
- Lepchenko won all three games that went to Deuce in the tighter second set.
Cast an eye back over the 2018 clay form of Sakkari, and it certainly isn't the worst. A third round at Roland Garros, a third round in Rome, a Semi Final in Istanbul and a Quarter Final in Bol were all solid enough, and as I mentioned yesterday in the preview for her match against Perrin, I think the fast clay conditions suit her style of play. She handled the conditions well yesterday against Perrin, and I feel her court movement and ability to make Petkovic play that extra shot or two on a regular occasion will be the difference here.
Petkovic sits at 6-5 on clay over the last 12 months, with her only top 100 victory coming against an out-of-form Mladenovic in the first round at Roland Garros. Whilst some can look at a 6-0 6-4 win over Lepchenko and see the positives, I actually think Petkovic would have benefited more from a tight, challenging match, such as that had by Sakkari. I get the feeling in this match Sakkari will be in a better position to handle the tight, pressure-point moments that will arise. I think when things tighten up slightly, Petkovic can struggle on clay due to her flatter hitting style. When everything comes together, she is fantastic to watch, however I think the margin for error just isn't quite there on clay at times. I really like Sakkari to get the job done today at a really nice price, and as such I am suggesting a 4 unit stake. I'd have Sakkari as a clear favourite on the surface in this match-up on current form, so the up to $2.20 available is generous.
4 units Sakkari to defeat Petkovic at $2.15 at Topsport ($2.20 at Bet365)