ATP Sofia Qualifying
Gerasimov vs Travaglia (Approx 09:00pm AEDST)
Very comfortable making a play on Gerasimov to get the job done today against Travaglia. I think the indoor hardcourt form of Gerasimov over the last 6-12 months leads me to backing Gerasimov, and it was good to see him get things back on track with a solid straight sets win yesterday against Arnaboldi. Gerasimov was able to put 61% of first serves in play and won over 80% of first serve points, dropping his serve only once for the match. It was an uptick in form compared to the last few weeks, and does give me confidence in his ability to get the job done today.
Travaglia hasn’t convinced me as much on indoor hardcourt lately. Whilst he was able to qualify well and reach the second round of the Australian Open, I don’t think the indoor hardcourt particularly favours Travaglia, and he was very lucky in coming back from a set and some tight moments against James Ward in the first round. His second serve is my main worry, as I think Gerasimov has the ability to exploit it quite well in perfect indoor conditions.
When you look at the average first serve percentage of Travaglia over the last couple of months, he has really struggled to put a high percentage of first serves into play, and I feel that may be a key difference in this one. Look for Gerasimov to look after his serve, and get the job done against Travaglia and progress to the main draw.
4 units Gerasimov to defeat Travaglia at $1.75 at Topsport/Neds/Unibet (note $1.90 at Bet365)