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April 16, 2019 Part 2


As much as I love this game, there are always moments! Bedene was one of those yesterday, looking lethargic throughout his match against Albot. The money came thick and fast for Albot in the lead up to the match, and it was justified. I must say I was intrigued watching Bedene call for the trainer at 4-6 2-5* to take some tablets, because he was shaking hands with Albot before he had even swallowed the tablets.

Onto today, where I have found some solid early match value first on court in Monte Carlo. I also like the odds on Londero head to head and at the line, however just didn’t quite make a play. 

Back in a couple of hours with more plays - I wanted to get this one out now.

As always, if you have any questions, please don't hesitate to get in touch.

Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com

 


3.5 Unit Bet

Tsonga -4.5 games vs Fritz at $2 (+100 or 1/1) at Bet365/Unibet/Betfair - ATP Monte Carlo 
 

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Tsonga vs Fritz (Approx 07:00pm AEST)


The line and total for the Tsonga and Fritz game is something that does pop up as a regular issue. Let’s take a look at the pros and cons of both the total games market (set at 21.5) and the game handicap market (set at -4.5)

Total Games under 21.5 Market:

- Likely covers in a comfortable win for either player.

- Unlikely to cover if a tiebreak were to occur (especially in the case of Fritz winning the tiebreak)

- Covers a 6-4 6-4 victory for Tsonga, however that is the only Tsonga victory related score this covers that Tsonga -4.5 games doesn’t cover.

Tsonga -4.5 game handicap:

- Covers a comfortable win for Tsonga.

- Allows opportunity for Tsonga to cover in 3 sets if Fritz were to win a tiebreak.

- Covers all scores that under 21.5 games covers except for a 4-6 4-6 result.

Considering I feel this match will be quite one sided favouring Tsonga, I do like both of the above options. If Tsonga were to drop a set here, I would expect it to occur in a tiebreak if anything, as he shouldn’t have too much trouble consistently holding serve on clay against Fritz, who dropped two sets 2-6 against Marcel Granollers on the faster clay in Houston last week.

Whilst there is the obvious risk of Fritz serving first leading to Tsonga needing to break serve three times for the match (assuming he holds his own serve) to cover the -4.5 in most instances, I think this is nullified by the fact we are dealing with one of the slower clay surfaces. Things won’t be as heavy being the first match of the day, but I feel if Tsonga brings a level that is remotely close to that in Marrakech last week, this should be a comfortable win for Tsonga overall.

On this slower clay, I feel Tsonga has the perfect mix of power and movement to cause a LOT of trouble to Fritz. The longer the rally, the more I feel this will favour Tsonga consistently. 

If you have the option of waiting until the toss of the coin, that may be beneficial, however when you consider that Tsonga 4-6 4-6 is the only reasonable possible score that u21.5 covers that -4.5 games doesn’t (unless Fritz turns into Nadal and pulls off a dominant win), then I am happy to side with the -4.5 game handicap at slightly better odds as well for a 3 unit selection.


Suggested Bet

3.5 units Tsonga -4.5 games vs Fritz at $2.00 at Unibet/Betfair/Bet365
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