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January 2, 2019


Welcome to today's preview.

A win, a loss and a refund from January 1’s included plays (plus a tight 2 set loss to Hijikata in Playford). Djere couldn’t turn a slow start around quickly enough, whereas Ivashka and Hurkacz played one of the more comfortable total games over 22.5 matches in recent memory. It was unfortunate that the Anisimova/Cepelova match didn't reach its conclusion, with Cepelova trailing 2-6 0-3, voiding the selection on Anisimova -3.5 games from a near certain victory.

On to today, where there are a couple of solid situational plays. The units are still a touch lower as players are still finding their feet for the season, however I do have my eye on a larger play tomorrow. 

As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
1.5 Unit Bet

Raonic/Kecmanovic over 22.5 games at $1.90 (-111) at Topsport - ATP Brisbane

Kontaveit to defeat Kvitova at $2.04 (+104) at Unibet - WTA Brisbane

Medvedev to defeat Murray at $2.10 (+110) at Bet365 - ATP Brisbane


 

ATP Brisbane
 

Raonic vs Kecmanovic (Approx 3:30PM AEDST)


Again I get the feeling that a younger player has been a touch underrated in a match-up, in a similar way to Birrell against Kasatkina.

Miomir Kecmanovic is another player on my watchlist for 2019, as I feel he will start to make the step up to ATP level quite well for his age. I was very impressed with the way he ended his 2018, winning the Challenger Title in Shenzhen, and starting this week with some very impressive qualifying and first round performances. Across his 7 sets of tennis, he has only dropped his serve once, and it is his ability to get roughly 60% of his first serves into play that allows him to look after his serve relatively comfortably.

I am not sure how much can be read into the whitewash of Aljaz Bedene at the hands of Milos Raonic in Round 1. It is always going to be a difficult task for any player against Raonic when he puts in excess of 70% of his first serves into play, however I feel the over 22.5 game total is a touch low for my liking. If both players can serve at a high percentage, then I really like the chances of this one going well over the game total. My confidence is helped by the fact that I rate Kecmanovic better than the $4 chance he is currently being touted.



Suggested Bet

1.5 units Raonic/Kecmanovic over 22.5 total games at $1.90 (-111) at Topsport

ATP Brisbane
 

Murray vs Medvedev (Approx 9:00PM AEDST)


Whilst I was initially reluctant to oppose Andy Murray for his first match of the year against James Duckworth, I am more than happy taking Danlil Medvedev as an underdog in their meeting today, as I think Murray may be a touch sore after his first competitive match. You could see just what a first round victory meant for Murray, as he was quite emotional and honest in his post-game interview. 

My worry with Murray today is the ability for him to back up and compete the next day. He admits that he still has pain and discomfort when he plays, and this week and the start of the season was more about figuring out if he could play consecutive matches etc.  As a result, I am not sure I can justify Andy Murray being a favourite against a player such as Danlil Medvedev. Medvedev looked very good in Australia last year, winning the Sydney title and looking very comfortable on court. His best tennis can trouble the best, and I think there is enough value in his price for a 1.5 unit selection for Medvedev to take the victory today. 


Suggested Bet

1.5 units Medvedev to defeat Murray at $2.10 (+110) at Bet365 

WTA Brisbane

 

Kontaveit vs Kvitova (Approx 3:00PM AEDST)


A little situational play here for a player I highly rate coming up against a player who at times has struggled early in the season, and is coming off a 3 hour match yesterday evening. 

I am am not sure what Petra Kvitova had in mind for her first match of the season, but I doubt it was 3 hours on court against Danielle Collins. Credit to Kvitova however, as Collins was unable to convert a 7-6 *5-4 30/0 position. The scheduling however has not been particularly kind to Kvitova, who is due on court approximately 19-20 hours after stepping off court against Collins.

These two were very evenly matched across 2018, and I feel that the scheduling will help contribute to Kvitova’s undoing here. Kontaveit was absolutely ruthless against Suarez Navarro on Monday, dropping 3 games and exacting revenge on her Australian Open loss last year. 

Look for Kontaveit to exact a lot of pressure on the Kvitova second serve. If the legs of Kvitova are even just a little bit heavy, which I would expect after such a long match to start the year and a short turnaround, then the price on Kontaveit is incredibly solid. As Kvitova has retired in the past when falling down a set and fatigued (see versus Suarez Navarro prior to US Open), I would suggest making a play at a bookmaker that pays out on a retirement after the first set. 

I am looking for Kontaveit to make a statement here. If Kvitova makes a statement and backs up from yesterday, then in my mind she edges closer to Australian Open Outright calculations depending on the weather. 


Suggested Bet

1.5 units Kontaveit to defeat Kvitova at $2.04 (+104) at Unibet
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