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March 21, 2019


A couple of plays today from a busy day in Miami. There are a lot of tricky matches with a lot of mid-range players coming up against each other through the final round of qualifying and round 1.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. 
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
 
4 Unit Bet

Fabbiano to defeat Ivashka at $2.05 (+105 or 21/20) at Betfair/Topsport - ATP Miami

3 Unit Bet

Puig -4 game handicap vs Wang at $1.89 (-112 and 89/100) at Topsport - WTA Miami

Note: Odds in brackets provided to cover all international formats

WTA Miami

Puig vs Wang (Approx 08:00am AEDST)


Here we have Monica Puig coming up in what is effectively a home match for her with the crowd support in Miami - I am sure many will remember the match between Puig and Wozniacki, where Puig came back from a first set bagel to take the second and third sets 6-4 6-4, it will be remembered for some slightly different reasons due to Wozniacki's interactions with the crowd. Nevertheless, Puig always looks comfortable playing in Miami, and I do feel her style and fitness here will be absolutely crucial against Wang.

I have backed in Wang to get the job done a couple of times of late, however I have had some concerns in that time on her ability to play out three strong sets. Her losses against some lower ranked players such as Kr Pliskova, Badosa, Zhu and Kostyuk also concern me in that I am now not 100% sure she is ready for the step up to WTA level against a player with the style of Puig.

The weather won't be too hot in Miami, however there will be a touch of humidity as well. Regardless, I think Wang is going to get the absolute runaround here from Puig. Puig's main weakness is the ability to be hit off the court by some of the stronger players on tour (I.e. Kontaveit a couple of times recently), however I don't think Wang has enough weapons and a strong enough fitness base to match it with Puig. I am comfortable making a 3 unit selection on Puig -4 games, however there is -3.5 games available at almost every bookmaker at the time of writing.


Suggested Bet

3 units Puig -4 games vs Wang at $1.89 at Topsport

ATP Miami 

Ivashka vs Fabbiano (Approx 05:30am AEDST)


A couple of weeks back I was on the other side of this match-up, and got very lucky in the end. On indoor hardcourt I played Ivashka -2.5 games vs Fabbiano. After Fabbiano was able to win the first set, Ivashka was finally able to create an opportunity to break in the second set, snatching it 6-3 after digging himself out of numerous holes on serve. The third set was up and down, and was ultimately handed to Ivashka as Fabbiano went off the boil to the chair umpire due to the music being played on the next court (between matches). Alas, I felt that Fabbiano was the better player that day, and Ivashka got away with absolute murder.

Fast forward to outdoor hardcourt in Miami, and I am more than comfortable making a play on Fabbiano as an underdog in what I feel to be more favourable conditions for the Italian compared to the indoor hardcourt last month.

When you look at the form of both players in the meantime, it also strongly leads to making a play on Fabbiano. Whilst Fabbiano has lost a couple of matches recently, they have been against Verdasco, Tsonga and Giron (who went on quite a run). Ivashka, since switching to the hardcourt, has lost to Moutet, Andreozzi, Berdych and Kukushkin, which I wouldn't label as superb form.

Based off what I saw last month when these two met, and what I have seen since, I have to side with Fabbiano here, and I am comfortable making it a 4 unit selection.


Suggested Bet

4 units Fabbiano to defeat Ivashka at $2.05 at Betfair/Topsport ($2.10 at Bet365 and Neds)
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