Ivashka vs Fabbiano (Approx 05:30am AEDST)
A couple of weeks back I was on the other side of this match-up, and got very lucky in the end. On indoor hardcourt I played Ivashka -2.5 games vs Fabbiano. After Fabbiano was able to win the first set, Ivashka was finally able to create an opportunity to break in the second set, snatching it 6-3 after digging himself out of numerous holes on serve. The third set was up and down, and was ultimately handed to Ivashka as Fabbiano went off the boil to the chair umpire due to the music being played on the next court (between matches). Alas, I felt that Fabbiano was the better player that day, and Ivashka got away with absolute murder.
Fast forward to outdoor hardcourt in Miami, and I am more than comfortable making a play on Fabbiano as an underdog in what I feel to be more favourable conditions for the Italian compared to the indoor hardcourt last month.
When you look at the form of both players in the meantime, it also strongly leads to making a play on Fabbiano. Whilst Fabbiano has lost a couple of matches recently, they have been against Verdasco, Tsonga and Giron (who went on quite a run). Ivashka, since switching to the hardcourt, has lost to Moutet, Andreozzi, Berdych and Kukushkin, which I wouldn't label as superb form.
Based off what I saw last month when these two met, and what I have seen since, I have to side with Fabbiano here, and I am comfortable making it a 4 unit selection.
4 units Fabbiano to defeat Ivashka at $2.05 at Betfair/Topsport ($2.10 at Bet365 and Neds)