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April 7, 2019


A fantastic result yesterday, with a dominant first set from Kerber allowing a 6-4 second set to be enough to cover the -5.5 game handicap. 

Onto tonight, with two plays standing out to me. As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. 

Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
 

 

2.5 Unit Bet

Puig to defeat Keys at $2.22 (+122 or 61/50) at Betfair minus commission - WTA Charleston

Muguruza -4.5 games vs Rybarikova at $1.80 (-125 or 4/5) at Bet365 - WTA Monterrey


 

WTA Charleston
 

Puig vs Keys (Approx 03:30am AEST)


Where on earth has this form been for Monica Puig?! The former Olympic Gold Medallist has looked absolutely scintillating this week, with some very impressive performances against Errani, Kenin, Sabalenka and Collins on her way to the Semi Final. The last three matches in particular have showcased how well suited this surface is for Puig, and it is clear that regardless of how powerful her opponent is off each wing, that she is able to use her movement to her advantage on the slower clay. Alternately, the surface isn’t so slow that she cannot generate winners off her own racquet as well. She has shown this week that she can neutralise some big servers such as Sabalenka, so I don’t feel the power of Keys today should be too overwhelming. 

Madison Keys was able to grind out a very solid 3-set victory over Sloane Stephens, snatching the third set 6-2. A 3 set win over Maria, and straight sets win over Ostapenko (trailing early) and the three set win over Stephens is solid form, however I do believe based on the form the Puig has displayed this week, and just how well the surface suits Puig in my opinion, Keys will need to improve significantly today to justify her price. The second serve of Keys yesterday was a liability, winning only 12/36 points behind it - something which raises a bit of a red flag for me today. I think Puig can turn this match into a grind, and that will work in her favour. Puig’s ability to absorb and re-direct Keys’ pace and keep her on the move will be the difference today. Happy to make a 2.5 unit selection on Puig to triumph
.

Suggested Bet

2.5 units Puig to defeat Keys at $2.22 at Betfair minus commission.  

WTA Monterrey 
 

Muguruza vs Rybarikova (Approx 05:00am AEST)


Whilst I was keen to oppose Garbine Muguruza earlier in the week against Margarita Gasparyan, I feel after her performance against Mladenovic yesterday that her form has certainly built significantly across the week. As her confidence builds across tournaments, she can be very hard to stop. The question is: where can Rybarikova gain an edge in this one?

I could perhaps explore making a case for Rybarikova at the game handicap if she had beaten some in-form players coming into the Semi Final. Doi, Voegele and Vickery wins hardly instil a significant amount of confidence; alas, you can only beat the player that is standing across the net, and Rybarikova managed that from a very tricky position in round 1 (down a set and break to Doi). My worry here is that Rybarikova now finds herself in a match-up against a player that is very different prospect to her previous three. 

This match rests on the racquet of Muguruza, and when you take into consideration their previous meetings as well, I certainly favour Muguruza to cover the -4.5 game handicap here. She should be far too strong in my opinion, and I am happy to place a 2.5 unit selection on Muguruza to progress to the final with a dominant win. 



Suggested Bet

2.5 units Muguruza -4.5 games vs Rybarikova at $1.80 at Bet365
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