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April 13, 2019


One win and one loss for a small profit overnight. Bacsinszky wasn’t able to maintain her form from a set and break advantage, with Kuznetsova grinding her way to a three set victory. The day improved significantly with the 4 unit selection of Zidansek covering her -3.5 game handicap comfortably, winning 6-2 6-0. 

On to today, where a couple of value selections stand out. As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. 
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
 

 


3 Unit Bet

Kuznetsova -3 games vs Pliskova at $1.87 (-115 or 87/100) at Bet365/Unibet - WTA Lugano

2.5 Unit Bet

Zidansek -2.5 games vs Arruabarrena at $1.80 (-125 or 4/5) at Bet365 - WTA Bogota

WTA Lugano
 

Pliskova vs Kuznetsova (Approx 2:00am AEST)


Whilst I did have some question marks over Kuznetsova’s ability to back up her first round victory, she was able to get the job done from a really difficult position, trailing a set and a break early in set 2. Whilst I thought Bacsinszky was going to be able to grind her down, Svetlana did prove me wrong. Today, after a day and a bit recovery time, I am happy to side with Kuznetsova in what I feel to be a favourable match up. 

Whilst Kristyna Pliskova has managed to carve out some solid clay results in the last 12 months, I think her results this week in particular have been a touch overrated. She was fortunate that Lottner was able to knock off her good friend in Bencic, opening up this section of the draw significantly. I personally feel the match up today doesn’t favour her at all. The high IQ tennis that Kuznetsova is able to deliver consistently over her career should be too strong. If she can neutralise the serve, a trait Pliskova’s opponents have lacked this week, then that should go a long way today. Look for Kuznetsova to keep the ball low, use angles and extend rallies regularly. Happy to play the -2.5 game handicap in this one, and for fairness I’ll record against the -3 handicap which I also like. 


Suggested Bet

3 units Kuznetsova -3 game handicap v Pliskova at $1.87 at Topsport

WTA Bogota
 

Zidansek vs Arruabarrena (Approx 2:00am AEST)


Happy to go back to the well again with Zidansek today. Whilst I was very confident in her ability to get the job done against Vickery yesterday, the strength in which she got the job done was most impressive, dropping only two games for the match. 

This match and how you perceive it comes down to how you weigh up past form on clay, and how you place that against past form at Bogota as a location. The altitude obviously has an impact, and it is a surface and location that Arruabarrena has excelled on in the past. 

What I cannot marry up with that is the form that Arruabarrena has been displaying across the rest of 2019. I think Arruabarrena’s drop off in form has been masked by the fact she has been able to face Babos and Paolini in the first two rounds. Today is an entirely different prospect when you consider clay form. Her stat lines in the first two rounds leads me to think that she may struggle here against Zidansek, who has looked incredibly solid not only on clay in the last 12 months, but is starting to really develop a level of consistency that leads me to confidently back her today at the -2.5 game handicap. 



Suggested Bet

2.5 units Zidansek -2.5 games vs Arruabarrena at $1.80 at Bet365 (would also take -3 and -3.5 games at a lower staking)
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