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April 17, 2019


One win and one loss for a slight profit In An-Ning. Martin dropped only two games against Novak, before Purcell dropped the first set to Thompson. Purcell had done well to come from *1-4 to *3-4, before dropping the set 3-6. 

Couple of quick previews below, with more to follow tonight in 2-3 hours. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

Early plays that just miss the cut include Albot and Nishikori at the line.  
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
 

 


4 Unit Bet

Schwartzman -5 games vs Fritz at $1.89 (-112 or 89/100) at Topsport - ATP Monte Carlo

2 Unit Bet

Dima first set winner vs Otte at $3.50 (+250 or 5/2) at Bet365 - ATP Challenger Tunis 

ATP Challenger Tunis
 

Otte vs Dima (Approx 07:00pm AEDST)


I am really quite baffled by the price here on Dima to win the first set or the match against Oscar Otte today. $3.50+ seems to be absurd value given how Dima finished the year on clay last year, and the fact that Otte appears to have plateaued a touch overall. 

Otte went 12-11 on clay over the last 12 months, however that shifts to 10-13 in first sets. When you consider the new Challenger format now allows seeded players to have the bye, I think a player that can sometimes start slowly, giving up the advantage to their opponent who has already got a match under his belt, makes for a tricky situation. 

Dima looked incredibly solid in his first round match against Setkic, and looked to be solid on serve, winning 17/23 points. Dima was also able to win a Challenger on clay in 2018, defeating the likes of Portero, Sels, Majchzrak, Dominguez and Novak on the way to the title. 

For a player that has the ability to win Challenger clay tournaments, with a match under his belt on the surface, against a player who has lost more first sets than matches over the last 12 months, I feel $3.50 to win the first set is a great price. I’d rate this closer to $2.50 personally. 


Suggested Bet

2 units Dima first set winner vs Otte at $3.50 at Bet365

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Schwartzman vs Fritz (Approx 08:30pm AEDST)


Rinse and repeat from what should have occurred yesterday with Tsonga against Fritz. Tsonga burst out of the blocks, breaking instantly before a hip/lower back issue plagued him from early on, and ultimately resulted in a retirement. 

Even with Tsonga incapacitated, Fritz really struggled to put him away in that first set. I think for the match-up today, Schwartzman’s ability to grind, retrieve and redirect will consistently be far too good for Fritz. Fritz at his best in hardcourt is a solid player, but his lack of a plan B is his downfall, and will haunt him today. 

Playing Diego requires you to hit your spots accurately to set up your point, and I don’t feel as though Fritz quite has the patience to manage that consistently against a player like Diego. You look at his losses over the last year on clay to the likes of Granollers, Lajovic and Andreozzi and it shows that he does struggle against players who can bring that element of consistency to their game on this surface. 

There is a bit of -4.5 games around at bookmakers, which I absolutely love in this instance. As I think the odds will move and with it the line, I will record against the $1.89 at Topsport currently for -5 games, which I also like. Look for Diego to neutralise the Fritz serve and torture the American today. 



Suggested Bet

4 units Schwartzman -5 games vs Fritz at $1.89 at Topsport
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