ATP Challenger Tunis
Otte vs Dima (Approx 07:00pm AEDST)
I am really quite baffled by the price here on Dima to win the first set or the match against Oscar Otte today. $3.50+ seems to be absurd value given how Dima finished the year on clay last year, and the fact that Otte appears to have plateaued a touch overall.
Otte went 12-11 on clay over the last 12 months, however that shifts to 10-13 in first sets. When you consider the new Challenger format now allows seeded players to have the bye, I think a player that can sometimes start slowly, giving up the advantage to their opponent who has already got a match under his belt, makes for a tricky situation.
Dima looked incredibly solid in his first round match against Setkic, and looked to be solid on serve, winning 17/23 points. Dima was also able to win a Challenger on clay in 2018, defeating the likes of Portero, Sels, Majchzrak, Dominguez and Novak on the way to the title.
For a player that has the ability to win Challenger clay tournaments, with a match under his belt on the surface, against a player who has lost more first sets than matches over the last 12 months, I feel $3.50 to win the first set is a great price. I’d rate this closer to $2.50 personally.
2 units Dima first set winner vs Otte at $3.50 at Bet365