ATP Buenos Aires
Jarry vs Sonego (Approx 04:30am AEDST)
Both plays today present as exceptional value based off situations that occurred last week. I will start with Nicolas Jarry.
On reflection, you cannot help but feel that the Davis Cup may have prevented Jarry from a massive shot at the ATP Cordoba title. Jarry lost in the first round to Londero, who went on to win the title playing some very impressive tennis. I just feel that had Jarry not had to travel half way around the world in the days prior, he should have won that first round match quite well.
Nevertheless, all that has done in my opinion has led to Jarry being exceptional value today against Lorenzo Sonego. Statistically against Londero he didn't play too badly, with the only difference the Argentine's 2/3 break point conversions compared to Jarry's 0/5. I have a very high opinion of Jarry, and I personally feel he is a big chance at the outright title win this week.
Lorenzo Sonego did well in qualifying, defeating Gaio and Giannessi (via second set retirement). I just fear that he may not have the mix of power and movement that Jarry possesses on clay. I feel he will give up too many opportunities, something that you cannot afford against a player as solid on clay as Jarry. He had a similar result against Londero in Cordoba as Jarry did in round 1, without the travel/fatigue of the Chilean.
I just feel Jarry is more than ATP level on clay, with Sonego sitting as a Challenger Level player still trying to bridge that gap. I was expecting Jarry to open around the $1.35 here, but I can appreciate the slight put-off from his performance last week. It was an absolute forgive for mine, and as a result the value today is too good to pass up.
I also like the -1.5 game handicap for a bit more of a return, however I anticipate this line to move in the next few hours. Most bookmakers have Jarry priced at $1.68 or better, which I feel is a fantastic price, and worthy of a 5 unit selection.
5 units Jarry to defeat Sonego at $1.68 at Topsport