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February 11, 2019


There looks to be a number of very interesting prices across all levels in the coming days, however scheduling will decide unit staking to an extent. There are two standout opportunities from Argentina in the morning, with one play in particular catching my attention.

As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
5 Unit Bet
Jarry to defeat Sonego at $1.68 (-147 or 17/25) at Topsport - ATP Buenos Aires

1.5 Unit Bet
Garin to defeat Auger-Aliassime at $1.78 (-128 or 39/50) at Unibet - ATP Buenos Aires

ATP Buenos Aires
 

Jarry vs Sonego (Approx 04:30am AEDST)


Both plays today present as exceptional value based off situations that occurred last week. I will start with Nicolas Jarry.

On reflection, you cannot help but feel that the Davis Cup may have prevented Jarry from a massive shot at the ATP Cordoba title. Jarry lost in the first round to Londero, who went on to win the title playing some very impressive tennis. I just feel that had Jarry not had to travel half way around the world in the days prior, he should have won that first round match quite well.

Nevertheless, all that has done in my opinion has led to Jarry being exceptional value today against Lorenzo Sonego. Statistically against Londero he didn't play too badly, with the only difference the Argentine's 2/3 break point conversions compared to Jarry's 0/5. I have a very high opinion of Jarry, and I personally feel he is a big chance at the outright title win this week.

Lorenzo Sonego did well in qualifying, defeating Gaio and Giannessi (via second set retirement). I just fear that he may not have the mix of power and movement that Jarry possesses on clay. I feel he will give up too many opportunities, something that you cannot afford against a player as solid on clay as Jarry. He had a similar result against Londero in Cordoba as Jarry did in round 1, without the travel/fatigue of the Chilean.

I just feel Jarry is more than ATP level on clay, with Sonego sitting as a Challenger Level player still trying to bridge that gap. I was expecting Jarry to open around the $1.35 here, but I can appreciate the slight put-off from his performance last week. It was an absolute forgive for mine, and as a result the value today is too good to pass up.

I also like the -1.5 game handicap for a bit more of a return, however I anticipate this line to move in the next few hours. Most bookmakers have Jarry priced at $1.68 or better, which I feel is a fantastic price, and worthy of a 5 unit selection.


Suggested Bet

5 units Jarry to defeat Sonego at $1.68 at Topsport

ATP Buenos Aires
 

Garin vs Auger-Aliassime (Approx 07:30am AEDST)


Much like his Chilean counterpart, I am happy to make a small play on Christian Garin to get the job done against the young Canadian Auger-Aliassime.

A large part of the reason for opposing Garin last week with Ramos was due to the situational nature of the match, with Garin travelling half way around the world and Ramos playing some half decent tennis on hardcourt in the lead-up. 

Whilst the majority of Garin’s clay form came in late 2018 at Challenger level, some of his opponents are certainly edging on ATP quality on clay. Although Auger-Aliassime also put together some very impressive results midway through 2018, I don’t think the quality of opponent quite matched that of Garin. 

Just a smaller play, however I do feel Garin would be closer to $1.55-$1.60 in this one on form. Happy to make a 1.5 unit selection for Garin to get the job done, as it would take a significant uptick in form from FAA to overcome the Chilean. 


Suggested Bet

1.5 units Garin to defeat Auger-Aliassime at $1.78 at Unibet
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