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March 10, 2019


Donald Young was unable to capitalise on a strong start, falling in straight sets. Break point conversion was the difference, with Hurkacz breaking in every game he earned a break point.

A number of plays today, so the previews are a touch shorter in length. As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. 
 
Good Luck Today,

Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com
 
4 Unit Bet

De Minaur -4 games vs Giron at $1.89 (-112 or 89/100) at Topsport - ATP Indian Wells


2.5 Unit Bet

Sevastova/Brengle under 19.5 total games at $1.86 (-116 or 43/50) at Topsport - WTA Indian Wells

Coric -2.5 games vs Karlovic at $1.90 (-111 or 9/10) at Topsport - ATP Indian Wells



2 Unit Bet

Suarez Navarro -3 games vs Vikhlyantseva at $1.90 (-111 or 9/10) at Topsport - WTA Indian Wells

Mladenovic +4.5 games vs Osaka at $1.97 (-104 or 97/100) at Topsport - WTA Indian Wells

Doi/Pliskova over 19.5 total games at $1.83 (-120 or 83/100) at Bet365 - WTA Indian Wells

1.5 Unit Bet

McHale +3.5 games vs Pavlyuchenkova at $1.89 (-112 or 89/100) at Topsport - WTA Indian Wells

Doi to defeat Pliskova at $5.70 (+470 or 47/10) at Topsport - WTA Indian Wells


Note: Odds in brackets provided to cover all international formats

WTA Indian Wells

Suarez Navarro vs Vikhlyantseva (Approx 06:00am AEDST)


For those who were following during the Australian Open, this play falls along a very similar thought process to Vikhlyantseva's match at the Australian Open against Timea Bacsinszky. I think the young Russian can still struggle at times against the craftier type of opponents, and Suarez Navarro definitely falls into that category.

With CSN finding some form in Dubai, I am more than happy to make a play on her here, and she would also represent value h2h as a double leg. If you can get a hold of some of the -2.5 games available out there I would highly recommend it, however for recording purposes I will record at -3 games.



Suggested Bet

2 units Suarez -3 game handicap at $1.90 at Topsport

WTA Indian Wells

McHale vs Pavlyuchenkova (Approx 09:00am AEDST)


I still get the feeling that Pavlyuchenkova is struggling a touch with that shoulder issue that has been plaguing her for a while. Her form hasn't quite maintained a high level since the Australian Open, and I think her loss to Garcia in Dubai was particularly concerning.

With the form that McHale has built in the last couple of weeks, as well as her impressive qualifying and round 1 form, I feel a +3.5 game start is a solid starting point on a slightly slower hardcourt. 


Suggested Bet

1.5 units McHale +3.5 games vs Pavlyuchenkova at $1.89 at Topsport

WTA Indian Wells

Sevastova vs Brengle (Approx 07:30am AEDST)

I am not entirely sure which areas of this match-up suit Brengle, and to game total sitting at 19.5 games seems a nice position to take the total games under here. This match sets up with that feeling that Sevastova should take it in a cakewalk - almost one of those matches that builds the expectation for her having a fantastic week, only to be let down later in the week when the pressure starts to build.

With the pressure off here, this should be a comfortable win for Sevastova. Brengle was the beneficiary of a very poor Sam Stosur in round 1, and won't be afforded to same opportunity today.


Suggested Bet

2.5 units Sevastova/Brengle under 19.5 total games at $1.86 at Topsport

WTA Indian Wells

Pliskova vs Doi (Approx 09:00am AEDST)


As a player that has certainly found a bit of form over the last couple of weeks, and having had previous success against Pliskova, and has put together 3 very solid performances this week (defeating Di Lorenzo, Wickmayer and Jabeur all in straight sets), I was compelled to write this preview up as Doi to win, however I have settled on a split of total games and head to head price. I feel Doi should be able to do more than enough to push this match over the game total of 19.5 games. There is some nice value over 19.0 games out there, but for fairness I will not record against that. I don't think Doi is the best match-up for Pliskova, especially on a slower hardcourt,  and the Czech has been a bit shaky since the Australian Open. Happy to make a 2 unit play on the total going over, and a 1.5 unit play on the head to head price. 

Suggested Bet

2 units Doi/Pliskova over 19.5 total games at $1.83 at Bet365

1.5 units Doi to defeat Pliskova at $5.70 at Topsport

ATP Indian Wells

De Minaur vs Giron (Approx 06:00am AEDST)


Taking the -4 games here seems to be a really quality selection in my opinion. In what could potentially be some trickier, slower conditions, Giron is going to have to do an awful lot to get the ball past De Minaur on a consistent basis. Pushing for that extra bit of power or angle will lead to errors, and I think the wall that is Alex De Minaur should be far too strong for the American today. 

De Minaur's only losses this year have come to Tsonga (vintage performance), Nadal (coming off a 5 set match the round before at the Australian Open) and Zverev, so I don't foresee too many issues here for De Minaur.

Happy to make a strong play on the -4 games available. -3.5 games is also available, and although there can be some risk with taking a -4.5 game handicap in a best of 3 set format, I think De Minaur should be far too strong in this one. Giron has a solid win record at Challenger level, however a number have been in 3 sets, and today is a totally different level of competition.


Suggested Bet

4 units De Minaur -4 games vs Giron at $1.89 at Topsport

ATP Indian Wells

Coric vs Karlovic (Approx 06:00am AEDST)


Happy Borna Coric won't be making the same mistakes as Matt Ebden in Round 1, who lost in 2 tiebreak sets to the newly 40 year old Ivo Karlovic. Ebden was disappointing on serve in both tiebreaks, and even served for the second set. 

Coric recaptured some form in Dubai last week, making his way to the Semi Final before being humbled by Roger Federer. With this match taking place on a slow hardcourt, I cannot help but feel there is at least one break of serve in this match for Coric. If this match were indoor I would be less confident, however I think Coric is good enough.

Suggested Bet

2.5 units Coric -2.5 games vs Karlovic at $1.90 at Topsport

WTA Indian Wells

Mladenovic vs Osaka (Approx 03:00pm AEDST)


Considering the way Osaka played against Mladenovic the other week, and the way she is presenting herself in the media at the moment as someone who has a lot on their mind (not the discussions today regarding Serena, as well as all the questions around her coaching split with Bajin).

Osaka does come into this match as the defending champion, however there just doesn't feel like there is that aura about her that I was expecting after the Australian Open. She lost convincingly to Mladenovic in Dubai, dropping 7 times out of 9 occasions. I just feel although I would still expect her to claim victory here, that taking Mladenovic with a 4.5 game start, coming off her round 1 performance, and their meeting two weeks ago, makes sense to me.

Suggested Bet

2 units Mladenovic +4.5 games vs Osaka at $1.97 at Topsport
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