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April 21, 2019


a -3.18 unit result yesterday from a wide array of plays. There were some comfortable wins (Clarke and Clarke 2-0, Potapova), some clear misses (Horansky and Giannessi), a frustrating loss on Bellucci (fair play to Domingues saving 15/17 break points on his poor serve), and a sneaky win from a poor position (Dellien in 3 tiebreaks).

Onto today, where I am trying something a little different looking at the plays in two of the finals. I have built a little data set from the week of tennis for both players, and I would be interested to see your thoughts on the data and if you find it useful.

As always, if you have any questions please get in touch with me via email, or twitter as a backup option.

Thanks for the support, and Good Luck Today,


Ace

Twitter: @Ace_Previews
Email: Ace@acetennispreviews.com

 

3 Unit Bet
Dellien to defeat Hoang at $1.72 (-139 or 18/25) at Bet365 - ATP Barcelona Qualifying 

2.5 Unit Bet

Fognini -2.5 game handicap vs Lajovic at $1.81 (-123 or 81/100) at Topsport - ATP Monte Carlo***

2 Unit Bet

Clarke to defeat Gunneswaran at $2.75 at Bet365 - ATP Challenger An-Ning

*** denotes will be available on The Hub at Betfair

ATP Monte Carlo
 

Fognini vs Lajovic (Approx 10:30pm AEST)


Anyone who was able to select Fognini and Lajovic as their finalists based on recent form - I tip my cap to you.

This certainly isn't the final most saw coming, however I still think it has the potential to be a fantastic final, with these two players matching up incredibly well overall.

Let's first look at the run to the final of Dusan Lajovic, including his serve and return stats against each opponent.
As you can see from the data above, Lajovic has done a phenomenal job to date this week in clutch situations. He has held 63.13% of service games where he has faced a break point, and converted 80% of games where he has earned a break point into a break of serve. His strength of opponent by way of average rank is lower than Fognini, and you could subjectively note that Lajovic has been on the good end of Thiem splitting up with his coach, and the potential letdown spot of Medvedev after beating Djokovic. Overall, fantastic stats, but to me there feels like there is an element of overperformance compared to the mean for Dusan. We could see this continue, but I would imagine as the match progresses that we may see these overall stats drop.

Now lets take a look at the stats for Fognini.
For what is a more difficult route to the final, and when you consider the tricky positions Fognini found himself in against Rublev and Coric, his stats for the week look pretty solid overall. His strength of opponent here is also stronger in my opinion, with Rublev better than a 90th ranked player, and the obvious need to have come through Rafael Nadal on the way to the final.
As much as it is something that I generally don't consider, I think Lajovic has actually found himself overperforming slightly in the big moments through his matches this week, and against a stronger claycourt opponent in Fognini today, things may become a whole lot more difficult. It is also worth considering that this is Lajovic's first career ATP final (compared to Fognini's 18th), and situational nerves must be taken into consideration as well.

The only negative to taking Fognini in a stronger fashion is the potential letdown spot here after playing Nadal. Fognini has struggled backing up wins against Nadal in the past, however the ease in which he defeated Nadal yesterday should mean there was little physical impact on his body.

Happy to make a 2.5 unit selection at the -2.5 game handicap. I would drop that staking if -3.5 games is all that is available, however it is also a nice value seleciton.

Look for Fognini to snatch the biggest title of his career with an impressive performance against Lajovic today.

Suggested Bet

2.5 units Fognini -2.5 game handicap vs Lajovic at $1.81 at Topsport

ATP Challenger An-Ning
 

Clarke vs Gunneswaran (Approx 04:00pm AEST)

 

Whilst I would much rather take the +3.5 game handicap that is available in some markets, I think the $2.75 for Clarke to get the job done today in windy conditions again today seems a solid investment. Clarke has far and away been the player most comfortable in the conditions for the week, and I wasn't particularly impressed with Gunneswaran yesterday, who I think in the end was the beneficiary of a Majchzrak that can struggle in longer matches, notably on the clay.

Clarke is the first very solid return of serve that Gunneswaran has faced this week, and I think it is going to show today. I was hoping for $2.20 on Clarke today, so to be able to access $2.75 seems a value position to take for 2 units.


Suggested Bet

2 units Clarke to defeat Gunneswaran at $2.75 at Bet365

ATP Barcelona Qualifying
 

Hoang vs Dellien (Approx 09:45pm AEST)

 

Happy to go against with Dellien today, who found himself on the brink of defeat yesterday against Barrere, before climbing off the canvas for a 6-7 7-6 7-6 victory. It is just the type of match that Dellien thrives on, and I feel he will gain a bit of confidence going into today's match.

I get the feeling that Antoine Hoang is only still in this tournament largely due to the yips of Andrey Rublev yesterday. Rublev was obviously still thinking about the loss in Monte Carlo, where he gave up an incredibly dominant position to Fognini, who has now gone on to reach the final.

I wouldn't class Hoang in the strong clay player category, whereas Dellien almost exclusively plays on clay. I like Dellien to grind down Hoang here, and the head to head price looks to be exceptional value in my opinion.


Suggested Bet

3 units Dellien to defeat Hoang at $1.72 at Bet365
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