VA Realtors Confidence Survey

This is a monthly survey of VA Realtors where they respond on the levels of buyer and seller activity. It's on a scale of 100 so 50 is the number where if it's higher than 50 it's closer to High / Very High and vice versa.

First off, the headline states that buyer activity is at the lowest level yet but then in the article it states they only began tracking this data in July of 2021. I'm shaking my head right now. Come on, headline writers, you're better than this!

While buyer activity did decline significantly it's still at 56 which is not exactly dire. I would expect this number to tick up as buyer's accept higher rates after taking a pause and realize that they have more power in this market and rates are still at historic lows.

They also show the market outlook which is what they expect for the next three months (the second line graph in the article). Realtors believe buyer activity will continue to decline as seller activity rises. This is the correction I've been talking about where it is going to shift more towards a buyer's market. I'm not quite so dire in my outlook on what level they settle at but even a rating of 42 is nothing awful. One thing I noted was that if they're correct, buyer and seller activity will be equal. Do you know what that's called? A healthy freaking market! I think a more formal phrasing would be a market in equilibrium.

April Local Market Indicators

You can read the summary on the first page but what was interesting to me (especially given the earlier link to declining buyer activity) is that new listings were up and inventory is up. As buyers realize they have more choice and interest rates aren't actually that bad, their activity will increase.

A couple small tidbits. If you look on page 5 of the report, it shows 2 year trends.  The median Ask / Sold Price Ratio has remained at 100% for two years! That means you're usually paying list price.

A final tidbit is on page 19 where most new active listings are coming from outlying counties and not in Albemarle County or the City of Charlottesvile. Interesting trend but it means pricing in Albemarle and the City will remain strong.
Clients closed on this new construction home in Spring Creek in the month of May!
Housing Market Turning Point

A good summary of the changes that have and are taking place in the market right now.

Another point they make is that as time passes and inventory levels increase, pricing growth sellers have enjoyed for so long will start to slow and perhaps even decline helping with affordability issues.
This listing in Nelson County also closed in the month of May!
Michael Ball
PO Box 462, Crozet, VA 22932

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Michael Ball · PO Box 462 · Crozet, VA 22932-0462 · USA