29 AUGUST 2021

During the past seven years, growth rates in crude- and product-trades decreased significantly (see graph below showing Clarkson's 'Monthly Global Seaborne Oil Trade Indicators'). The growth rate for trades in oil products (light blue line) reached its trough in spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic caused oil product demand to shrink strongly. The growth rate for trades in crude oil (dark blue line) reached its low half a year later in autumn 2020 as OPEC decided to cut oil production. Meanwhile, oil product trades have recovered sharply with y-o-y growth rates jumping to nearly 15% lately. Crude oil trades improved as well, however, growth has remained negative. Given the strong increase in product demand, we expect crude oil demand to recover in the near future as well. 

Interestingly, our product tanker index gained 14.4% last week, showing some signs of life after a long period of lackluster interest for this sector. The product sector saw another meaningful development when Navios Maritime Partners announced its intention to merge with its sibling Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. The latter was challenged by an upcoming maturity event which now will be mitigated once the announced merger is executed. Consequently, after such an announcement, Navios Maritime Acquisition's share price surged by nearly 75% within one day. The newly formed Navios Maritime Partner will offer institutional investors an interesting platform to invest in a broadly diversified shipping company.  

Overall, it seems that investors are rebuilding some trust in the shipping sector. We would not be surprised if our 'Notos Shipping Index' reached 2,000 index points in a couple of days.

This document has been prepared and approved by Notos Consult GmbH and is for informational purpose only. The information presented in this report is intended for the recipient to whom it was delivered. Reproduction or distribution of this document in whole or in part is not permitted without the express written consent of Notos Consult GmbH.

This document contains forward-looking statements. We caution the reader that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Past returns are no indication of future returns. The development of the industry, 
markets, and companies described in this document may differ materially from the forward-looking statement contained herein.

Information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Unless otherwise stated, any statements herein are based on our own estimates at the time of publication. Notos Consult GmbH makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the information provided. 

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