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IEA AND EIA FORECAST INCREASE IN WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
Both the International Energy Agency ("IEA") and the U.S. Energy Information Administration ("EIA") recently published their updated forecasts for world oil consumption and world oil production. IEA expects worldwide oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022. EIA forecasts that the global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will reach 101.3 million b/d in 2022, thus exceeding the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 (see chart below).
Currently, the tanker market is a two-tier market: Old, non-eco tonnage is barely earning OPEX. By contrast modern, eco-friendly tonnage is earning substantial premiums. This discrepancy can be found also in the development of the share prices of companies like Nordic American Tankers with their quite old fleet and Okeanis Eco Tankers which are operating very modern vessels. Nevertheless, prices for newbuildings and second-hand tonnage are already on the rise, reflecting rising market expectations as well as elevated steel prices. Investors may ask whether they should concentrate on the booming dry bulk and container markets or whether there is a good reason to invest in a sector that is still lagging behind. We are not giving any advice, but like to mention that our trading strategy is long in tankers, mainly concentrating on companies with modern eco-tonnage.
Shipping equity markets performed excellently last week. The DAXglobal Shipping Index climbed by more than 7% w-o-w. The best-performing sector of the week was the bulker sector, rising by more than 13%, following the rebound in the BDI. The second winner was (again) the container market, which gained 8%, 'only'.
It is good to see that the Notos Maritime Sentiment Index picked up, again. Our trading strategy is quite balanced across the main sectors and gained 5.5% w-o-w. We closed some positions in the offshore market and used the proceeds to increase other investments in dry bulk and LPG.
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