21 FEBRUARY 2021

Shipping stocks continued their rally last week. The Dow Jones Global Shipping Index gained 4.8% w-o-w. The liner sector jumped by 6.5% and shrugged off the last week's downgradings for Maersk. Hapag Lloyd presented an impressive Q4 result. Zim, the newcomer in the liner sector, was able to climb over USD 20, after their disappointing IPO. However, one should keep in mind that rising fuel prices and charter rates for chartered-in tonnage will have a somewhat dampening effect on the earnings growth for liners in the quarters ahead.

The VLGC market is under continuous stress. Propane exports from the MEG and US are stagnating or even declining due to the severe winter (US) and production cuts (MEG). However, the US propane production figures are still solid. Thus, we expect the US propane inventories to bottom-out in March and accelerate which could re-open the ARB, again.

From a strategic perspective, all our sentiment indices are now in positive territory - except for crude, which is neutral. Brokers report rising asset prices and slightly increasing ordering activity across all sectors. We view this as a positive sign and remain optimistic for the rest of the year.

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This document contains forward-looking statements. We caution the reader that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Past returns are no indication of future returns. The development of the industry, 
markets, and companies described in this document may differ materially from the forward-looking statement contained herein.

Information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Unless otherwise stated, any statements herein are based on our own estimates at the time of publication. Notos Consult GmbH makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the information provided. 

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