Another painful week for maritime investors: The Dow Jones Global Shipping Index dropped by 8.8%, extending its losses from the beginning of the year. The Offshore sector lost more than 12%, caused by the drop in oil prices. By contrast, the Crude sector lost only 1.7% after having reached very low valuations across the board. It seems that at least this particular sector may now have found its bottom. For instance, Teekay Tankers presented very good Q4 results, and the guidance for Q1 was also quite impressive. 

Last week, Avance Gas and BW LPG reported their Q4 results which were broadly in line with expectations. Each company announced a 50% dividend payout ratio based on Q4 earnings. This represents more than a 5% dividend yield per quarter. However, the outlook for 2020 seems to be quite uncertain as Avance Gas did not give a clear guidance for Q1 TCEs. This may partly explain why the share prices did not really react to the good earnings announcements.

Our trading strategy generated a slightly positive return w-o-w, supported by overweighting the Crude sector and the put option on the S&P 500. We closed this hedge on Friday and locked in an almost 5% performance contribution from this trade.

Going forward, we expect the volatility to decrease somewhat in the next week. This should allow the stock prices to climb again. The decisive question remains whether long-term investors will return to the maritime stock market in the next weeks.

This document has been prepared and approved by Notos Consult GmbH and is for informational purpose only. The information presented in this report is intended for the recipient to whom it was delivered. Reproduction or distribution of this document in whole or in part is not permitted without the express written consent of Notos Consult GmbH.

This document contains forward-looking statements. We caution the reader that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Past returns are no indication of future returns. The development of the industry, 
markets, and companies described in this document may differ materially from the forward-looking statement contained herein.

Information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Unless otherwise stated, any statements herein are based on our own estimates at the time of publication. Notos Consult GmbH makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the information provided. 

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