Puig vs Keys (Approx 03:30am AEST)
Where on earth has this form been for Monica Puig?! The former Olympic Gold Medallist has looked absolutely scintillating this week, with some very impressive performances against Errani, Kenin, Sabalenka and Collins on her way to the Semi Final. The last three matches in particular have showcased how well suited this surface is for Puig, and it is clear that regardless of how powerful her opponent is off each wing, that she is able to use her movement to her advantage on the slower clay. Alternately, the surface isn’t so slow that she cannot generate winners off her own racquet as well. She has shown this week that she can neutralise some big servers such as Sabalenka, so I don’t feel the power of Keys today should be too overwhelming.
Madison Keys was able to grind out a very solid 3-set victory over Sloane Stephens, snatching the third set 6-2. A 3 set win over Maria, and straight sets win over Ostapenko (trailing early) and the three set win over Stephens is solid form, however I do believe based on the form the Puig has displayed this week, and just how well the surface suits Puig in my opinion, Keys will need to improve significantly today to justify her price. The second serve of Keys yesterday was a liability, winning only 12/36 points behind it - something which raises a bit of a red flag for me today. I think Puig can turn this match into a grind, and that will work in her favour. Puig’s ability to absorb and re-direct Keys’ pace and keep her on the move will be the difference today. Happy to make a 2.5 unit selection on Puig to triumph.
2.5 units Puig to defeat Keys at $2.22 at Betfair minus commission.